N.I.E. and Iran – can you see the smoke?

So the National Intelligence Estimate released this week claims that Iran gave up it’s weapons program 4 years ago.

Or so said the headlines.

Critics, of course, claim this is just another example of the Bush administrations misuse of intelligence in prep for war against Iran.

There are several problems with this scenario.

First, there were no plans for military action, or at least invasion, of Iran.

At most, the only discussion centered on air strikes to take out the Iranian nukes.

But that is for another time.

What does the N.I.E. really say?

Well, most significantly, it states that the Iranian enrichment program is steaming full speed ahead.

As those who understand, know. The critical component to a nuclear warhead is not the missile technology, but rather the gathering of sufficient fissile material for the warhead.

The method of enrichment that the Iranians are using is most commonly used for producing nuclear weapons.

In addition, the improvement and production of their ballistic missiles continues unabated.

Their hardening of the missile silos also continues.

Finally, it is acknowledged that they purchased the plans for a nuclear weapon from the rogue Pakistani nuclear arms dealer A.Q. Khan.

What does it take to produce the final weapon? About 5 minutes and the turning of the final screw.

Observations of military activity, discussions of pre emption on the part of the Iranians and their own descriptions of acceptable losses in nuclear exchanges continue to point out the inevitability of their entering the nuclear weapons community.

This horse is out of the barn. What needs to be discussed is how to deal with a nuclear Iran, not whether they will be nuclear.

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